HASfter more than two years of fierce fighting on its soil, the Ukrainian army has decided to take the war across its eastern border, into Russia. Since August 6, its forces have gained a foothold in a few hundred square kilometers in the Kursk region, north of Kharkiv, forcing Russian authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians. As with Russia’s initial failed invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the offensive has exposed Moscow’s shortcomings: poor intelligence, poor analysis of the terrain, and unpreparedness.
This unexpected operation is at this stage a stinging setback for Vladimir Putin. On Monday 12 August, the Russian president questioned the role of Western countries in an attempt to play down the failure of his military forces in the face of this offensive. In the first days of the Ukrainian advance, he had deplored “indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets”an indecent and cynical remark given the incessant pounding of Ukrainian cities by his army to terrorize their population and destroy as much vital infrastructure as possible.
The current offensive is a particularly risky bet for the Ukrainian general staff, but it gives immediate room for maneuver to an army that has been on the defensive since the failure of a counteroffensive loudly announced for 2023. For months, Ukrainian soldiers have been facing the erosion of their positions by an aggressor that has an undeniable advantage in terms of men and equipment, due to the lack of adequate Western arms deliveries. By forcing Moscow to redeploy even just part of its troops, Kiev can hope to temporarily ease the pressure at work further south.
Making the war more costly for Moscow
kyiv's main supporters have refrained from criticizing the Ukrainian offensive. Traditionally very reluctant to extend the war in the slightest, Germany, through its Ministry of Defense, has thus considered that the right recognized to a country to defend itself could also extend to operations carried out on the territory of the aggressor. For months, Western countries had opposed the possibility that weapons delivered to Kiev could be used against targets located in Russia. This was adding strategic asymmetry to a flagrant imbalance of forces and, in short, a guarantee of an impasse.
At the risk of giving the impression of discovering the laws of war to his cost, Vladimir Putin expressed his indignation on August 12 that Ukraine is seeking, according to him, through its offensive to place itself in a better position in the event of negotiations. In recent weeks, breaking with his initial firmness, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly mentioned, including in The Worldthe prospect of talks in which Russia would be involved.
This opening is in fact complementary to the ongoing offensive that aims to deprive Russian soil of its character as a sanctuary spared from the fighting, from which Russian forces could bomb Ukraine without fearing the slightest response. Making the war more costly for Russia, including symbolically, unfortunately remains the only option at the moment to achieve a halt to the fighting, if not peace.
Source: Lemonde
