The European Commission published its latest economic forecasts on Friday November 15. In the next two years, it expects renewed growth, which would nevertheless remain modest. It also highlights the numerous challenges awaiting the Union and could further reduce its economic performance. Faced with them, judge, in an interview with WorldPaolo Gentiloni, the Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Europeans must act. “It’s now or never”he said.
European growth remains sluggish. For what ?
It could have been much worse. At the end of 2022, Europe was in recession. In 2023, it was stagnant. Today, growth is back, at a very limited pace, it's true, but it is back. Consumption has not yet recovered, although household purchasing power has improved with the fall in inflation. The savings rate remains abnormally high, mainly because of current uncertainties, such as the return of war. Likewise, private investment is not up to par, it has not returned to its pre-pandemic levels.
Mario Draghi, in his report on competitiveness, calls on Europeans to act without delay, otherwise the Union, in full economic decline, would, he says, be doomed to a “slow agony”. Do you share this diagnosis?
We are experiencing the end of a European illusion, the illusion of cheap energy thanks to Russian gas, of a Chinese market open without limits to our exports and of security provided by the United States.
Is it not rather a German illusion that you are describing?
No. It is a European illusion in which Germany was the main actor. More than the other member states, it must now increase its defense spending. More than the others, given the size of its industry, it has suffered from the rise in energy prices. More than the others, it is exposed to threats of protectionism coming from the United States and China. These are challenges that concern all Europeans but to which Germany is more exposed.
The war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, the election of Donald Trump… Europe is surrounded. What can she do?
These threats should act as a wake-up call, pushing us to act. It's now or never, in a way. But the problem is those whom this alarm signal should wake up. France [avec un gouvernement sans majorité] and Germany [où des élections sont prévues en février 2025] are in precarious situations. This gives the Commission and its President, Ursula von der Leyen, even greater responsibility.
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Source: Lemonde