Author of several works, Jean-Marie Guéhenno teaches international relations at Columbia University in New York. He was deputy secretary in the United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations, before being appointed head of the International Crisis Group from 2014 to 2018, an NGO specializing in conflict prevention.
In your opinion, what are the consequences of the election of Donald Trump on international relations?
Donald Trump wrote a book called The Art of the Deal [L’Art de la négociation] in 1987. His program is himself, which is both reassuring and worrying. He is more of a “Big Man”, a “strong man” as we have seen in many countries, than a true fascist. Fascism is an ideology of the 20th centurye century. Trump does not really have a structured or ideological program. It is possible that he does what he says, but it is also possible that he is satisfied with the announcement effect of his program. During his first term [2017-2021]he had, for example, promised a large wall along Mexico. In fact, he only built a few kilometers of it.
On Ukraine, what do you expect from the Trump administration?
Trump said he would resolve the issue directly with [le président russe Vladimir] Putin, that is, over the heads of Europeans and Ukrainians. Putin will probably let it happen. But part of Trump's entourage will tell him: “If you drop Ukraine, it sends a bad signal to China. » The question is whether Trump considers Ukraine to have more strategic importance to the United States than Vietnam or Afghanistan once had. We cannot rule out a fairly brutal scenario. Another scenario would consist of making Europeans face their responsibilities. “You want to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine? Send your troops there to deter Russia! “, Trump might say. Which European country would then be ready to do so? No doubt Poland, provided it is not alone, but would the others be ready for a direct confrontation with Russia? I'm far from certain. Trump could therefore confront Europeans with their contradictions.
If the United States drastically reduces its aid to Ukraine, are the Europeans ready to take over?
This is both a political and operational question. Europeans do not have the same capabilities as Americans when it comes to observation and surveillance. The president [Emmanuel Macron] spoke martially of a “war economy”, but this presupposes that industrialists have sufficient visibility to invest in new factories. This is starting to happen, but much more should undoubtedly be done. Then there is the problem of political will. This is where a possible European division appears. One of the key issues is Germany. What lesson will Berlin learn from the arrival of a new Trump administration? This will be decisive, because without Germany it will be very difficult to mobilize the European Union.
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Source: Lemonde