In Kenya, President William Ruto is pushing young people to emigrate

Kenyan drivers to drive buses in Germany. On September 12, Stella Mokaya, Kenya's ambassador to Berlin, announced that 3,000 drivers would soon be sent to work in the Federal Republic, as the country with its ageing population is structurally short of workers to fill certain positions. They will be employed by Aktiv Bus Flensburg, the company responsible for operating the transport network in Flensburg, a city of 100,000 inhabitants on the border with Denmark.

The two countries are planning further agreements in the energy, trade, education and transport sectors. The announcement of the upcoming arrival of the 3,000 bus drivers came ahead of Kenyan President William Ruto's visit to Germany on 13 and 14 September. During his trip, the head of state announced that 250,000 jobs had been secured for young graduates from his country, before being contradicted by the German Minister of the Interior, who pointed out that an agreement had been signed, but without a specific quota.

The fact remains that this partnership illustrates a fundamental trend: Kenya is encouraging its young people, qualified or not, to leave the country to seek employment opportunities elsewhere. William Ruto has put forward the figure of 5,000 Kenyans leaving for abroad each week. “He is the first president to make the export of workers an assumed public policy. The measure is at the top of his political agenda. It is unprecedented.”judges political analyst Njahira Gitahi.

Endemic unemployment

In addition to Germany, Nairobi has agreements with several states on the Arabian Peninsula and Canada. In May 2023, a deal on healthcare jobs was signed with the North American giant, with the Kenyan president promising to send doctors, nurses and physiotherapists as Canada's population ages. “Kenya’s workforce is our greatest resource. They are well-trained and hardworking. While we invest in sectors that will create jobs at home, opportunities for Kenyans abroad are another way to uplift our youth.”William Ruto had declared at the time.

Why multiply such agreements? “It is a way of alienating the youth, especially those who demonstrated in June and July against the finance law. William Ruto is throwing them out before they punish him at the ballot box in 2027,” believes Njahira Gitahi. Political journalist Dauti Kahura shares this analysis: “After two years in power, William Ruto is extremely unpopular, especially among “Gen Z” [la génération Z, née entre la fin des années 1990 et le début des années 2010]. Promising young people jobs abroad is a response to the recent protests.

Above all, according to him, expatriating Kenyan youth is “a good way for the head of state to distance himself from the group most likely to prevent his re-election in 2027”. Dauti Kahura recalls that “18-25 year olds represent 65% of the electorate” and that “While Kenyans in the diaspora have the right to participate in elections, in practice the arrangements for doing so make it complicated.”

Another reason: endemic unemployment. Some 35% of young Kenyans are unemployed. Many graduate from university without a job, and many are left, for want of anything better, in jobs for which they are overqualified. “The issue of mass unemployment is old and does not date from the Ruto presidency. The president must however give the impression that he is trying to find a solution to this problem. Saying that he is negotiating employment opportunities abroad is his answer”says Dauti Kahura.

Money from the diaspora

During the 2022 election campaign, William Ruto had continued to present himself as a candidate of the “little people” facing the elites. “He developed a narrative that was totally focused on unemployed young people, particularly the “hustlers” [travailleurs de l’économie informelle], but without ever saying that he intended to send people abroad. This argument appeared when he came to power”deciphers Njahira Gitahi.

Another explanation lies in the remittances of foreign currency. According to the Central Bank of Kenya, the diaspora sent 671 billion Kenyan shillings (about 3.8 billion euros at the time) to the country in 2023. Kenyans living in the United States contributed more than half of this, followed by those living in Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany and Saudi Arabia. “It is certainly a way to bring money into Kenya”judge Dauti Kahura. Especially since the country, heavily indebted, is struggling to repay its debts to international donors.

Njahira Gitahi is doubtful about the long-term effects of this policy: “Kenyans were taught in school that brain drain was a danger to the country, that it was depriving it of its doctors and engineers. I can't see how we can build a nation if we deprive it of its lifeblood.”