Lhe February 23, the Germans will elect a new Bundestag. Many expect the established parties to lose ground. During the recent elections – in the European Parliament, in June 2024, as well as in the Länder (Federated States) of Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg, in the east of Allengne, in September 2024 -, the young voters were massively supported the alternative far -right party Für Deutschland (AFD). In the three East Länder, from 31 % to 38 % of voters under the age of 25 voted for AFD.
This evolution is striking: in the federal elections of 2021, the young Germans had largely supported the Greens and the Liberals-Democrats (Liberal Democratic Party, FDP), who had respectively collected 23 % and 21 % of the votes among 18-24 years, as well as 21 % and 15 % among 25-34 year olds. Building on this success, the Greens and the FDP have formed a new government with the Social Democrats. Many hoped to see the “Tricolor Fire” coalition (in reference to the colors of the three parties), respond to the economic concerns of young voters.
This is not what has happened and many young Germans switched to AFD. According to the study “Zero-Sum Thinking and the Roots of Us Political Dives” (Sahil Chinoy, Nathan Nunn, Sandra Sequeira and Stefanie Stantcheva, 2023), the growing power of attraction of populist parties can be explained by reasoning to reasoning zero sum. When some groups prevail, others necessarily lose: this idea is solidly anchored in populism. For example, according to this idea, the success of foreigners is at the expense of the local population.
This zero-sum reasoning tends to prevail when the resources are rare, which is clearly the case in Germany, where the economy has stagnated since the COVID-19, which confronts young people with limited employment prospects and with revenues that trample. In addition, German youth come up against one of the lowest social mobility rates among OECD countries. Improving this situation is a major priority for the next German government.
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Source: Lemonde