Lhe rapid and widespread rise of populist parties has disrupted the political landscape on both sides of the Atlantic. But its effects are clearly distinct due to the difference in electoral systems.
In the United States, the American presidential election highlights political polarization pushed to the extreme, which is expressed in an increasingly brutal confrontation between Republicans and Democrats. It reflects a “polarization of reality”to use the expression of the economist Stefanie Stantcheva: Americans are divided, not only in their political opinions, but also in their perceptions of the same factual reality, whether inequalities, taxation, immigration or public policies. Political choices and economic interactions are increasingly perceived as a zero-sum game: improving the lot of some can only be done to the detriment of others.
If this polarization is also at work in Europe, and particularly in France, it does not occur according to a binary logic. The main consequence of the rise of populism in most European countries is increasing fragmentation, which we also observe at the level of the European Union (EU). More and more parties are needed to form government coalitions. As a result, governments are less stable and their internal cohesion is weakened. This makes decision-making more complex and time-consuming, especially in countries that have no experience of coalition governments. The budget debate in France is an obvious example.
Italy, a “laboratory”
The risk of this European fragmentation is political, economic and strategic. Political, because the inability to decide increases popular dissatisfaction and feeds populism, which in turn reinforces political fragmentation; the sequence of the dissolution of the National Assembly in France bears witness to this. Economic, because political uncertainty leads economic players to postpone their investments, which weighs on growth. Strategic, because the inability to decide weakens us in the face of other powers. A fragmented European system will have more difficulty responding not only to authoritarian regimes, but also to a United States with a unified government implementing an agenda radicalized by internal polarization.
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Source: Lemonde