“Germany has outsourced its security to the United States, its energy needs to Russia and its export needs to China. » This statement by Constanze Stelzenmüller of the Brookings Institution in 2022 must be updated. Meanwhile, Germany has swapped its Russian gas imports for American liquefied natural gas (LNG). The slowdown in its exports to China was offset by an increase in exports to… the United States.
Replace Germany with the European Union (EU), add the election of an isolationist American president to the mix, and the EU finds itself with a colossal problem on its hands. How to get out of this vice? In the past, the EU has always demonstrated determination in the face of shocks. And there will be a few in the next few years. Let “Europe first” therefore become the answer to “America first”.
If there is one shock we will not escape, it is the peace imposed in Ukraine. President Donald Trump assumes that Europe is a rich and prosperous region and must therefore face the perceived threat from Russia alone. The United States thus has a free hand to concentrate its military spending on the Chinese threat.
Strengthening EU defense
The perception that Russia has won a deal and is therefore planning to attack a neighboring country (Baltic States, Moldova) encourages the EU to act. It doesn't matter that this “domino theory” whether justified or not. The important thing is that most European countries believe in it.
The first step must be to build a military-industrial complex equivalent to that of Russia. Russia spends almost 9% of its gross domestic product on defense and Europe just under 2%. We need to expand our central fiscal capacity. What was impossible until now, with the exception of the European Next Generation fund, is now on the table.
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Source: Lemonde